While Greg Oden is often tagged with the 'bust' label, it's hard to put him in the same category as Darko Milicic, Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry and other high draft picks who have severly disappointed in past years. Oden is a legitimate superstar talent and in his limited time on the court, he has been able to back that up. Unfortunately, despite his 7' 285lbs frame of muscle, his body is like glass--easily broken.
Oden was drafted with the first overall pick in 2007. The second pick was superstar Kevin Durant. It's a well-known story, and does nothing but escalate Oden's lack of production. Oden has played in only 82 games out of 246. He has been reduced to limited minutes in those games due to caution by Coach Nate MacMillan and fatigue from not being able to stay in game shape due to the injuries. Meanwhile, Durant has played in over 70 games of each of his first four seasons, including all 82 games in 2009-2010, and has scored 25.9 ppg in his career.
It's hard to imagine Oden ever rejuvenating his career to the point where he can match Durant's production, especially with his constant battles with injuries. However, before throwing stones at the Blazers for making the pick, it's important to see what Oden could have become by looking at the evidence.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Oden's career averages are 9.4 ppg, 7.3 rbpg, 1.4 bspg on 60% shooting from the field in about 22 minutes per night. If he didn't have injury issues, he would no doubt be given starter minutes. Assuming Oden could stay healthy enough to get those kinds of minutes, and assuming (for the sake of argument) that he could curb his foul trouble issue (which could be argued to be partly due to fatigue since he can't stay healthy enough to stay in playing shape), Oden's projected numbers are a scary comparison to Dwight Howard's second year number, who was of similar age at the time.
- Howard's second season: 15.8 ppg, 12.5 rbpg, 1.4 bspg, 60% from the field in just under 37 minutes per night.
- Oden's career stat projections at 37 minutes per game: 15.8 ppg, 12.3 rbpg, 2.4 bspg, 58% from the field.
- Oden's second year projections at 37 minutes per game: 16.4 ppg, 12.6 rbpg, 3.4 bspg, 60.5% from the field.
By taking out the injury concerns, the questions about taking Oden over Durant make much more sense.
Current Top Tier NBA Centers
The center position is the toughest to find position to find in the NBA. With rules favoring guard play, some argue that having a top tier big man isn't as crucial as it used to be. With the no hand checking rule in place, smaller, quicker guards are quickly dominating the league. Yet, there's still a hefty advantage for having a dominant, defensive big man. The Orlando Magic, for instance, would not be very competitive without Howard. He's their enforcer and anchors the entire defense. The same can be said for Tim Duncan of the Spurs while he was still in his prime. Further evidence can be seen in the Rockets faltering out of the playoffs after Yao Ming started getting injured more consistently. Teams haven't had to win with centers because there simply aren't that many apt centers around. That does not mean that a team with a dominant big doesn't have a big advantage. The advantage might be even greater nowadays with so few bigs out there.
Make no mistake about it. If Oden could stay healthy, which we all know is a huge if that may only be solved by some kind of undiscovered sorcery, he has the ability to be a superstar center.
Freakish Athleticism
Dwight Howard may be the only other center whose athleticism matches Odens. Sure, there are power forwards who are freaks of nature, such as Blake Griffin and Josh Smith, but its an extreme rarity for one to come in a 7' 285lbs package. Oden is more dominant at the defensive end of the court at this stage in his career, but he has shown that he's able to be a very good offensive player, too. Patrick Ewing was the same way. At the start of his career, he was primarly known for his defense. It wasn't until later in his career when he became more known for his offense as well.
Phil Partington - Phil Partington is a writing enthusiast of many years and has been published in national magazines, web publications and other media ...
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